Donald Trump Threats

Donald Trump - Threats

What are the threats to President Donald Trump's re-election?

Here are the six threats to the re-election of President Donald Trump.

Threat #1 - Coronavirus Pandemic

See President Trump and Coronavirus.

Threat #2 - New Young Voters

Fourteen million teenagers who were 14 to 17 years old in 2016 are 18 to 21 years old in 2020, and a strong majority of them lean liberal. If half of them vote and two thirds of them vote Democratic, they will account for 2.33 million more votes cast for President Trump's Democratic opponent (4.66 million - 2.33 million) than in 2016.

Threat #3 - New Citizen Voters

Every 4 years, about 4 million immigrants become naturalized U.S. citizens. About half of them vote in presidential elections, and a 2012 study found that 62% of them identified themselves as Democrats, 25% as Republicans, and 13% as independents. If these numbers hold, the immigrants naturalized since 2016 will cast 740,000 more votes for President Trump's Democratic opponent than for him (1.24 million - 0.50 million) in 2020.

Assuming that an equal number of Republican and Democrat voters have died since the 2016 election, 3.07 million voters who voted against President Trump in 2016 will need to vote for him in 2020 in order for him to neutralize threats #1 and #2 (2.33 million + 0.74 million) above.

Threat #4 - (Ex-)Felon Voters

In 2016, 6.1 million Americans could not vote due to felony convictions. Among those with felony convictions who live in states that allow them to vote, about 15% do. A 2002 study found that 73% of felons and ex-felons vote Democratic when they vote, and the remainder can be assumed to be split 13.5% for Republican and 13.5 for Independent. If these numbers hold and the Democratic efforts to allow these 6.1 million felons and ex-felons to vote in 2020 succeed, they will cast 530,000 more votes for President Trump's Democratic opponent than for him (6,100,000 x 0.15 x 0.73) - (6,100,000 x 0.15 x 0.135).

Threat #5 - Wolves with Press Passes

Television networks' news programs once were cost centers that competed on accuracy and speed of the facts reported by trusted anchors. That changed in the 1970s after CBS' 60 Minutes turned a profit. Television news then became profit centers that compete on entertaining personalities telling the customers, especially the majority liberal, 18-49 year old demographic group that sets the advertisement rates, what they want to hear.

To affect negative coverage on a person, the media used to report negative news about that person and not report the positive. Since half of the truth is a lie, this was deceitful. Today, even positive news about President Trump is being twisted into negative by "reporters" who enshroud them in their negative personal opinions to push their and their employers' agenda of having a liberal retake the White House.

Related: Warning about Fox News

Threat #6 - Indiscriminate Counter-Punching

President Trump should help himself by displaying the restraint and the gravitas that his accomplishments deserve, especially given what the liberal media is up to. Dignified Rose Garden send offs for men like General James Mattis, General John Kelly, Rex Tillerson and John Bolton would have turned them into credible advocates instead of liabilities for his re-election. Good counter-punchers don't throw haymakers every time their opponent, let alone those in their own corner, flinches.